Shift technologies stock forecast 202511/7/2023 The forecast of EVs and possible fuel savings under an alternative scenario is highlighted in Figure-2 & 3. We are using the same fuel savings forecast to ascertain as to when the possible peak oil demand will occur. In August 2023, an article titled “EV Adoption Could Spell Trouble For Oil Exporters” was published in OilPrice. Concurrently, the evolution of EV charging infrastructure and fuel-efficient vehicles, and higher oil prices have motivated consumers to consider transitioning from internal combustion engine vehicles. Technological advancements, battery cost reductions, environmental concerns, and attractive government policies have spurred traditional car manufacturers to pivot towards eco-friendly transport. However, by 2022, the global fleet of 26 million EVs, though only 1.76% of the total cars, signaled a shift in transportation trends. Initially, their slow uptake did not overtly concern the oil industry, as they were not looking to challenge the oil sector directly. These changes will undoubtedly hamper global oil demand.įrom 2010 on, Electric Vehicles (EVs) began to make their mark on the automobile industry. The same industry that spearheaded the oil industry in the early 1900s, when Henry Ford invented the internal combustion engine, is now rapidly challenging the oil sector. Any alterations in the auto industry will inevitably affect global oil consumption, given that 60% of oil is used in transportation. Additionally, significant structural changes are occurring in the auto industry, which historically boosted oil demand. Consequently, the debate has shifted from the timing of Peak Oil Supply to when Peak Oil Demand will occur.įigure-1: BP Statistical Energy Review – June 2023.Ĭontrary to peak oil supply theories, peak oil demand relies on assumptions of ongoing technological improvements, not just in the oil and gas sector but also in competing energy sources like renewables. domestic oil production increased from 6.78 million barrels daily (MMBD) in 2008 to 17.77 MMBD in 2022 (Figure-1). The unlocking of these massive shale oil and gas basins, along with conventional discoveries in new frontier basins was possible due to technological advancements such as horizontal drilling and fracking techniques. Furthermore, innovations in technology over time have greatly reduced the breakeven costs of shale oil, unlocking vast reserves previously trapped under shale basins due to low permeability worldwide. One significant reason for this fluctuation is the US shale oil and shale gas boom that was initially catalyzed by high oil prices, though with several years lag, and continued its steady rise over time. Since the middle of 2014, oil prices have been falling and reached $30 in January 2016, and are now hovering around $80/bbl. Rapid technological innovations in 3D seismic imaging, horizontal drilling, fracking, and multi-completion techniques have challenged the concept of Peak Oil. Likewise global oil production increased from 32 million barrels daily (MMBD) in 1965 to over 94 MMBD in 2022 as such, the life expectancy of oil reserves is still hovering around 53 years! Global oil reserves increased from 682 billion barrels in 1980 to 1732 billion in 2022. In contrast, the oil and gas industry is dynamic, influenced by changing economic conditions and continuous technological advancements and expertise.Ĭontrary to predictions that Peak Oil could have occurred as early as the 1950s, the world is better off today. The question that arises is, why didn’t peak oil supply materialize in the first place? Simply put, the theory was based on static assumptions. This article will examine why the concept of peak oil supply failed to materialize and why one should believe the concept of peak oil demand will materialize. The oil industry is quite familiar with the concept of a “Peak Oil Supply,” but many find it hard to believe that there is another side of the coin: “Peak Oil Demand.” The idea of declining oil demand may seem confusing, especially in the context of global economic and population growth.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply.AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |